Critical Insights

Critical Insights are long-form reports that examine the geopolitical and economic forces behind a significant trend. Each report identifies and analyses the structural forces driving a trend, constructs a set of distinct and internally consistent scenarios for how it could develop, and outlines the implications for organisations. The reports are built on scenario analysis rather than single forecasts, on the basis that the value lies in understanding the range of plausible outcomes and what each scenario would require.
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Strait of Hormuz

May 2026 • Scenario Analysis • PDF

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Strait of Hormuz

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Strait of Hormuz

The assumption that the Strait of Hormuz would remain a neutral commercial corridor has broken. This report examines the structural consequences, for energy flows, insurance markets, and the organisations whose supply chains run through the Gulf, and constructs four scenarios for how the disruption resolves.
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The Strait of Hormuz After Neutral Passage Broke

The assumption that the Strait of Hormuz would remain a neutral commercial corridor has broken. This report examines the structural consequences, for energy flows, insurance markets, and the organisations whose supply chains run through the Gulf, and constructs four scenarios for how the disruption resolves.
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Resource Power: Critical Minerals and the New Geopolitics of Statecraft

Critical minerals have become a focus of industrial and foreign policy. This report examines who controls processing capacity, why that concentration is difficult to reverse, and how competition over mineral supply chains could develop across four distinct futures.
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De-Dollarisation and Monetary Fragmentation

The dollar’s role in global finance is not at immediate risk, but the conditions under which organisations access dollar infrastructure are changing. This report examines where that change is occurring, where it is not, and what four distinct monetary futures would mean in practice.
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