The assumption that the Strait of Hormuz would remain a neutral commercial corridor has broken. This report examines the structural consequences for energy flows, insurance markets, and the organisations whose supply chains run through the Gulf — and constructs four scenarios for how the disruption resolves.
The Strait of Hormuz was always a point of concentration. The Gulf export system — its processing plants, liquefaction trains, loading terminals, and storage facilities — was built on the assumption that maritime access through the Strait would remain commercially neutral. The question is no longer whether that assumption has been tested. It is whether commercial actors — shippers, insurers, charterers, financiers — will continue to treat passage as reliable when access requires political classification and coordination with a state authority. This report examines the physical geography of Gulf exports, the limits of the available alternative routes, and the specific exposure of different commodity flows and import-dependent economies. It then sets out four scenarios for how the situation develops over the next 24 months, from a negotiated return to commercially neutral passage to a permanent regime in which transit is conditional.
