What Does the Return of Industrial Policy Mean for the Global Trading System — and for States That Cannot Afford to Play?

The United States, the European Union, and China are all now engaged in large-scale state-directed industrial programmes aimed at securing advantage in semiconductors, clean energy, critical minerals, and advanced manufacturing. What was recently described as market distortion is now government policy in every major economy. This roundtable examines the consequences: for the multilateral trading rules these powers nominally still uphold, for the middle-income states caught between competing subsidy regimes, and for the long-term structure of the global economy.

The postwar multilateral order — the UN Security Council, the WTO, the IMF, the international court system — was designed for a world that no longer exists. Its core institutions are visibly strained: paralysed by veto politics, contested in their legitimacy, and increasingly bypassed in favour of bilateral arrangements, regional bodies, and ad hoc coalitions. This roundtable examines whether the existing architecture can be meaningfully reformed from within, or whether the more honest description of current trends is the gradual construction of a parallel order.